So, the time has come for me to make my Fearless Predictions for Election 2010 - the 'Empire' Strikes Back to (paraphrase Obama). I made these choices about two weeks ago, so they are reflection of just that: two weeks ago. But, rather than make any changes to it to reflect recent polling trends, I'll leave it the same. I will make two caveats though: I am probably wrong on the Connecticut call. McMahon seems to be dragged down by her WWE leadership more than I thought she would. And, these calls are all assuming minimal, standard SEIU/ACORN election thievery, so I could be wrong in Washington (remember Gregoire and Rossi) and Illinois. So, without further ado:
US Senate: R - 52 D – 48
A Sure Thing Percentage
South Dakota: Thune (R) 90-XX (Unopposed)
South Carolina: DeMint (R) 70-25
Idaho: Crapo (R) 70-27
Utah: Lee (R) 68-30
Oklahoma: Coburn (R) 68-30
Kansas: Moran (R) 67-30
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) 65-30
New York: Schumer (D) 65-33
Vermont: Leahy (D) 63-34
Alabama: Shelby (R) 63-33
Arkansas: Boozman (R) 62-33
Maryland: Mikulski (D) 61-38
Hawaii: Inouye (D) 60-35
Iowa: Grassley (R) 60-37
Georgia: Isakson (R) 60-38
Arizona: McCain (R) 60-31
Florida: Rubio (R) 60-25-13 (Rubio-Meek-Crist)
Alaska: Miller (R) 59-31-8 (Miller-McAdams-Murkowski)
North Carolina: Burr (R) 58-40
Ohio: Portman (R) 57-40
Louisiana: Vitter (R) 55-42
Oregon: Wyden (D) 55-43
Indiana: Coats (R) 55-43
High Confidence
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) 53-44
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) 52-46
Kentucky: Paul (R) 52-47
New York: Gillibrand (D) 52-47
Missouri: Blunt (R) 52-46
Delaware: Coons (D) 52-45
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R) 51-45
Nevada: Angle (R) 51-46
Colorado: Buck (R) 51-47
West Virginia: Raese (R) 51-47
Gutsy Calls
California: Boxer (D) 51-48
Washington: Rossi (R) 51-49
Illinois: Kirk (R) 50-49
Connecticut: McMahon (R)* 50-49
red – turn-over italics – underdog * - dark-horse call
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