Thursday, October 28, 2010

So, the time has come for me to make my Fearless Predictions for Election 2010 - the 'Empire' Strikes Back to (paraphrase Obama).  I made these choices about two weeks ago, so they are reflection of just that:  two weeks ago.  But, rather than make any changes to it to reflect recent polling trends, I'll leave it the same.  I will make two caveats though:  I am probably wrong on the Connecticut call.  McMahon seems to be dragged down by her WWE leadership more than I thought she would.  And, these calls are all assuming minimal, standard SEIU/ACORN election thievery, so I could be wrong in Washington (remember Gregoire and Rossi) and Illinois.  So, without further ado:


US Senate:                                R - 52            D – 48

A Sure Thing                                               Percentage
                South Dakota:  Thune (R)             90-XX (Unopposed)
                South Carolina:  DeMint (R)         70-25
                Idaho:  Crapo (R)                          70-27
                Utah:  Lee (R)                               68-30
                Oklahoma:  Coburn (R)                 68-30
                Kansas:  Moran (R)                       67-30
                North Dakota:  Hoeven (R)           65-30
                New York:  Schumer (D)               65-33
                Vermont:  Leahy (D)                     63-34
                Alabama:  Shelby (R)                    63-33
                Arkansas:  Boozman (R)               62-33
                Maryland:  Mikulski (D)                61-38
                Hawaii:  Inouye (D)                      60-35
                Iowa:  Grassley (R)                      60-37
                Georgia:  Isakson (R)                   60-38
                Arizona:  McCain (R)                    60-31
                Florida:  Rubio (R)                        60-25-13 (Rubio-Meek-Crist)
                Alaska:  Miller (R)                        59-31-8 (Miller-McAdams-Murkowski)
                North Carolina:  Burr (R)              58-40
                Ohio:  Portman (R)                       57-40
                Louisiana:  Vitter (R)                    55-42
                Oregon:  Wyden (D)                     55-43
                Indiana:  Coats (R)                       55-43
High Confidence
                Wisconsin:  Johnson (R)               53-44
                Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R)          52-46
                Kentucky:  Paul (R)                       52-47
                New York:  Gillibrand (D)             52-47
                Missouri:  Blunt (R)                      52-46
                Delaware:  Coons (D)                   52-45
                New Hampshire:  Ayotte (R)        51-45
                Nevada:  Angle (R)                       51-46
                Colorado:  Buck (R)                       51-47
                West Virginia:  Raese (R)             51-47
Gutsy Calls
                California:  Boxer (D)                    51-48
                Washington:  Rossi (R)                  51-49
                Illinois:  Kirk (R)                             50-49
                Connecticut:  McMahon (R)*       50-49

red – turn-over                                 italics – underdog                            * - dark-horse call

US House:  R – 260        D – 175  (GOP pickup of 82 seats)

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